This report utilizes a Monte Carlo simulation and patient vignettes to randomly assign patients to oncology practices and compare payments for cancer drug treatments (CDTs) and related professional services under a simple oncology bundled payment to fee-for-service payments for the same services. The purpose is to illustrate potential payment variability across patients. It focuses on two cancer types: stage III colon cancer and non-small cell lung cancer. Although not an illustration of the proposed CMS Oncology Care Model (OCM), the report notes that OCM includes some design features to mitigate the effects of random variation while still aligning quality and reimbursement.