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Modeling the pandemic risk

14 January 2022

In this paper, we discuss how to model pandemics such as COVID-19 and give an illustration on U.S. data. We also provide an overview of how to model the future effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality and explore a basic vector-borne disease model. We describe two models: 

  • SIR-type models used to project a number of deaths over a short horizon during a pandemic
  • Other types of models used to project mortality over a longer horizon

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