The short-term and long-term effects of shelter-in-place orders and widespread working from home has had a significant impact on the frequency of auto accidents due to the drop in miles driven. Since the release of a prior Milliman article on this topic,¹ we have seen several large insurers respond to this shift in exposure and loss experience in various ways. These companies have announced direct or indirect premium refunds aimed at their policyholders to address COVID-19 and its impact on claim activity. We will discuss several reasons why the market has responded this way and the impact to other parties due to the actions of the insurers.

The actions taken by several large insurers as of the date of this article are discussed below. While this list of companies represents a large portion of the personal auto insurance market in the United States, it is not exhaustive of all insurance company responses.

• Allstate announced an average 15% refund on the monthly premium for April and May to be returned to policyholders as either a return of premium or a credit on the account. The refund will occur in the months of April and May. Additionally, Allstate is providing automatic coverage to customers using their vehicles for commercial delivery of food, medicine, and other goods during the emergency order.²
• State Farm is issuing up to a $2 billion dividend, which will provide an average credit of 25% of premium for the period March 20 through May 31. These credits will be applied beginning in June. State Farm will continue to monitor its loss emergence and respond accordingly.³
• Liberty Mutual launched a program that will give policyholders a 15% refund on two months of their annual premium. The refund will be issued in the manner policy payments are made. They intend for the refunds to begin in the coming weeks after receiving regulatory approval.⁴
• The Travelers Companies announced a 15% credit on April and May premiums through a new “Stay-At-Home Auto Premium Credit Program,” with credits beginning as soon as possible.⁵
• Progressive is offering an “Apron Relief Program,” which credits insureds’ accounts 20% of April and May premiums on active personal auto policies. It will credit accounts within a few weeks of the end of each month—either in the form of a refund or a balance credit. The company indicates that additional credits in upcoming months may be forthcoming.⁶
• USAA is also offering a 20% credit on two months of premiums in the coming weeks that will appear as a credit to their customers' bills for auto policies in effect as of March 31, 2020.⁷
• Farmers Insurance and 21st Century are offering either a reduction in the next bill or a refund for prepaid policies of 25% of April premium. It indicates it will continue to monitor the situation for any further action in future months.⁸
• American Family Insurance is providing a one-time payment per vehicle of $50. Payments will be printed and mailed in check form after receiving regulatory approval.⁹

While the above list covers some of the companies that are providing credits or refunds on active policies, another large auto writer is taking a different approach to reflect the decrease in exposure. GEICO has announced a 15% credit on auto policies that renew between April 8 and October 7. This credit applies to the entire semiannual premium renewed during that time. It will also apply this credit to any new policies incepting in this period. Additionally, the company is expanding a pause on policy cancellation due to nonpayment of premiums through April 30. The pause on policy cancellation has already been mandated by several states for all personal auto writers, in some cases for longer periods.¹⁰

As demonstrated by the above list of companies, the personal auto insurance market has taken a unique response to the current crisis and how it has chosen to reflect the impact of the short-term change in driver behavior. While the California Department of Insurance has mandated premium refunds on auto insurance and other lines of business,¹¹ these companies are largely taking these actions voluntarily as a response to the unprecedented environment that we are currently in. There are multiple reasons behind these refunds and credits that make them both good short-term and long-term strategic moves for the companies.

First and foremost, insurers are looking to provide immediate financial relief to their policyholders with these premium reductions and also reassure their customers that, even if a premium payment is missed, coverage will remain active should the need arise. In addition, these insurance companies are positioning themselves to be compassionate partners with their policyholders and, as a result, are seeking to build goodwill with their customer bases during an otherwise difficult and uncertain time.

In the various press releases issued by auto insurers, many of the companies attribute the premium refunds to lower actual claim costs in March and April. They directly cite that the drop in mileage (and therefore exposure) has resulted in a drop in losses and loss-associated expenses. The uncertainty in knowing the duration of current driving behaviors makes extrapolation through the entire year problematic, but CCC Information Services projects a drop of 10.9% in overall miles driven in 2020. In Washington state, during the third week of March, the number of crashes statewide dropped 67% compared to the same week the year before.¹² In contrast to the expected drop in loss ratio prior to any premium adjustment, the general expense ratio may actually increase during the pandemic, and investment income could drop. For the expense ratio, the increased cost to shift to a remote working environment and additional inquiries and analyses resulting from the pandemic could result in upward pressure. If the loss ratio drop is greater in magnitude than the other changes, the combined ratios for these months could be much lower than anticipated before any premium adjustment.

First quarter industry results will be released soon, but it is likely that we will have to wait for at least second quarter financials to reveal initial estimates of the extent of the impact of this changed policyholder behavior on current calendar year experience. Are the current refunds announced by the above insurers reflective of the auto industry’s view of how loss experience will emerge relative to a "normal" month? Can insurers quantify the impact on other ratios (expense and investment) as quickly as loss ratios? Currently, the market is estimated to refund $10.5 billion of premium,¹³ or 4% of the total 2019 direct written premium for personal auto insurance, but will this amount be consistent with the actual improvement in loss experience? Will the premium refund amounts be too large and cause the combined ratios for 2020 to appear high relative to the history, or vice versa? Insurers are reacting quickly to help their policyholders, but it is too soon to determine whether or not the refunds are overly generous.

In contrast to other companies, GEICO’s response directly addresses both a business need to maintain income flow as well as provide relief to policyholders. Because the credit is tied to a policy renewal or a newly issued policy, it guarantees that the insured will remain with GEICO. The discount is on future coverage and not tied directly to the months where the exposure is expected to decrease. By applying the discount to the entire policy period, GEICO also offers a larger relative credit than the other carriers have committed to at this point.

Looking ahead, the decisions by auto insurers to offer short-term premium credits or refunds will likely affect other players in the insurance market in ways that are not yet felt.

• When the 2020 loss experience is included in future rate filings, individual state insurance regulators may have to be flexible in reviewing how companies incorporate the current year in the rate-making process and how it affects future “normal” years. Companies and actuaries will need to carefully consider the applicability of loss experience during this time in formulating future projections.
• Depending on how companies consider these premium refunds in the calculation of commission, insurance agents may see less income if they are compensated based on premiums written.
• Reinsurers are likely to see less income than anticipated due to a lower subject base and will need to consider how to reflect the current activity in their pricing of individual treaties.
• We expect to see more insurers respond to the pandemic with similar premium credits, including smaller, regional companies as they follow the example of the larger market players.

For now, most of these refunds are based on a percentage of monthly premiums through May, but insurers have left the window open for them to continue these refunds and discounts as the pandemic situation continues to develop and stay-at-home orders are potentially extended. After an immediate reaction with short-term premium discounts, insurance companies will have to wait to determine whether to apply future premium discounts and react accordingly as this pandemic continues to grow or slows down. Just like the rest of us.

¹Anderson, P., Krafcheck, E.P., & Pipkorn, K.A. (March 27, 2020). Nowhere to Drive: The Impact of COVID-19 on the Auto Insurance Industry. Retrieved April 23, 2020, from https://us.milliman.com/en/insight/nowhere-to-drive-the-impact-of-covid-19-on-the-auto-insurance-industry.

²Allstate. Allstate Is Here to Help. Retrieved April 23, 2020, from https://www.allstate.com/covid.aspx?intcid=/home/home.aspx|hero|LearnMore|Covid19200406.

³State Farm (April 9, 2020). State Farm Mutual Returning $2 Billion Dividend to Auto Insurance Customers. Retrieved April 23, 2020, from https://newsroom.statefarm.com/good-neighbor-relief-2-billion-dividend/.

⁴Liberty Mutual. How We're Responding to the Coronavirus (COVID-19). Retrieved April 23, 2020, from https://libertymutualgroup.com/about-lm/corporate-information/how-were-responding-coronavirus-covid-19.

⁵Travelers (April 8, 2020). Travelers announces Stay-at-Home Auto Premium Credit Program. Press release. Retrieved April 23, 2020, from http://investor.travelers.com/file/Index?KeyFile=403557655.

⁶Progressive. Apron Relief Program. Retrieved April 23, 2020, from https://www.progressive.com/support/covid19/.

⁷USAA. USAA to return $520 million to members. Press release. Retrieved April 23, 2020, from https://communities.usaa.com/t5/Press-Releases/USAA-to-Return-520-Million-to-Members/ba-p/228150?_ga=2.21208571.1177498430.1586807018-1772983636.1586807018.

⁸Farmers Insurance. COVID-19: We're Here to Help. Retrieved April 23, 2020, from https://www.farmers.com/covid-19-notice/.

⁹American Family Insurance. We're in This Together: Auto Insurance Premium Relief Payment. Retrieved April 23, 2020, from https://www.amfam.com/about/coronavirus/relief-payment.

¹⁰GEICO (April 22, 2020). GEICO Is Here to Help During the Coronavirus Outbreak. Retrieved April 23, 2020, from https://www.geico.com/about/coronavirus/.

¹¹California Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara (April 13, 2020). Bulletin 2020-3: Premium Refunds, Credits, and Reductions in Response to COVID-19 Pandemic. Retrieved April 23, 2020, from http://www.insurance.ca.gov/0250-insurers/0300-insurers/0200-bulletins/bulletin-notices-commiss-opinion/upload/Bulletin_2020-3_re_covid-19_premium_reductions-2.pdf.

¹²Davis Law Group, P.S. (March 30, 2020). COVID-19 Drives Washington Vehicle Accidents Down 67%. Retrieved April 23, 2020, from https://www.injurytriallawyer.com/blog/covid-19-drives-washington-vehicle-accidents-down-67-.cfm.

¹³Sams, J. (April 15, 2020). Auto Claims Decline 40 to 50% as Consumers Stay Home, Snapsheet Says. Retrieved April 23, 2020, from https://www.claimsjournal.com/news/national/2020/04/15/296565.htm.