We are seeing some positive aspects in domestic economics with the U.S. Labor Department indicating better job growth during the last three months and hourly pay rising 2.5%. The U.S. unemployment rate remains steady at 5% and is the lowest it's been since 2008.
Since the end of December, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has dropped nearly 1,000 points and the S&P 500 has fallen nearly 121 points, amounting to percentage declines of around 6% in the first week of 2016. If you look back to January 2015 and January 2014, we began both years with declines in the U.S. equity markets early in the month, continuing into negative territory to finish off January. In both of those years, the market rebounded during February and ended the quarter with better results than January might have predicted.
Source: Morningstar Direct
This is not to say that we are expecting or predicting the same type of rebound during February 2016, but it shows that, from a historical perspective, the January effect doesn't provide the full story. As you can see, rocky starts were followed by healthy rebounds as we moved into the mid part of the first quarter in each year.
More currently, during August 2015, the markets experienced a sharp correction of more than 11% over a period of six trading days from August 18 through August 25. During that period, market volatility rose significantly, as noted in the VIX Index (see chart below). The VIX, a market volatility indicator, jumped significantly during this time from the 10-to-15 level prior to the correction to over 40 during the first couple days of the decline, and remained moderately high through September.
During this time, we saw the market attempt a rebound on a couple of occasions, but ultimately it dipped again in the last week of September. The return of the market to pre-correction levels took the entire month of October, finally ending the first day of November with the S&P 500 hitting 2,100.
Source: Morningstar Direct
At this point, as an investor, you are most likely asking yourself what, if anything, should be done. Looking at historical market patterns and movements, there is a tendency for investors to be cautious when the market ventures into near-correction territory. Concerns associated with market declines often lead to unwarranted or ill-timed actions. Remember to look at the long-term aspects of your investment strategy. Market setbacks and corrections are always a part of long-term investing. Keep in mind your risk tolerance while thinking twice before making any significant portfolio adjustments.